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I think no matter how good natal-kinect performs as a casual game controller-free experience, the casual market still doesn't need a second 300$ toy to not play with.
The wii "Casual" market is a giant lie; they went bowling for a weekend and will one day sell their dusty bowling machine on a Sunday morning garage sale.
Most of them have already spent 500$ on an Ipad, they are not going to want this.
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