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Keith 04-13-2020 07:09 PM

3258: Essential
 
Crime as you understand it is down while domestic abuse is up; hand-washing your clothes thanks to COVID-19; Are you essential?; Easter, Passover, and church gatherings; SNL at Home; food delivery; knowing your children; coronavirus and goofy leaders around the world

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Apia resurrected 04-14-2020 04:28 AM

Chemda, there is evidence that we get immunity from it after the first round.
At least for six months.

Of course, everything is new, but this is what I read in a German study.

Here:

All of Germany is waiting for news from Heinsberg. It is the place where the first big outbreak of the novel coronavirus occurred. A team led by Bonn-based virologist Hendrik Streeck is currently researching what the infection chains looked like and how high the spread of infection was in the small community of Gangelt, a municipality in the district of Heinsberg, in North Rhine-Westphalia. Streeck presented the initial interim findings of his field study to the Düsseldorf state parliament on Thursday.

Streeck said that the infection rate in the representative sample was 15 percent. This means that 15 percent of the residents there have already experienced an infection or are currently infected. According to current estimates, they are immune for six to 18 months, said Streeck. This means that the process to achieve herd immunity has already been initiated. Herd immunity is a form of protection in which a high percentage of the population is immune either through vaccination or infection.
https://www.general-anzeiger-bonn.de...a_aid-50014979

Lanfear 04-14-2020 05:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Apia resurrected (Post 882726)
Chemda, there is evidence that we get immunity from it after the first round.
At least for six months.

Of course, everything is new, but this is what I read in a German study.

Here:

All of Germany is waiting for news from Heinsberg. It is the place where the first big outbreak of the novel coronavirus occurred. A team led by Bonn-based virologist Hendrik Streeck is currently researching what the infection chains looked like and how high the spread of infection was in the small community of Gangelt, a municipality in the district of Heinsberg, in North Rhine-Westphalia. Streeck presented the initial interim findings of his field study to the Düsseldorf state parliament on Thursday.

Streeck said that the infection rate in the representative sample was 15 percent. This means that 15 percent of the residents there have already experienced an infection or are currently infected. According to current estimates, they are immune for six to 18 months, said Streeck. This means that the process to achieve herd immunity has already been initiated. Herd immunity is a form of protection in which a high percentage of the population is immune either through vaccination or infection.
https://www.general-anzeiger-bonn.de...a_aid-50014979

Nee also mit Streeck würde ich ja eher nicht argumentieren wollen.
Der hat bis in den März rein argumentiert es müssten keine Kontaksperren geben, das Corona wäre weniger schlimm als die Grippe, die Ergebnisse die er letzte Woche vorgestellt hat sind sehr vorläufig und diverse Wissenschaftler haben Zweifel an der Methodik.
Und dann ist da ja noch die komische PR Agentur StoryMachine die das alles nicht so richtig wie neutrale Wissenschaft sondern eher politische Lobbyarbeit aussehen lässt.

Apia resurrected 04-14-2020 07:38 AM

That's what I found in English. Drosten says the same.

Lanfear 04-14-2020 08:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Apia resurrected (Post 882729)
That's what I found in English. Drosten says the same.

Nope
The article you linked literally says:
Quote:

The Berlin virologist Christian Drosten criticized the presentation of the results. "I can't deduce anything from them," he said during an online seminar at the Cologne Science Media Center: "It was all a bit vague."

Apia resurrected 04-14-2020 09:20 AM

In the Episode today.
Of course it’s vague. We are at the beginning of everything. But he said there is immunity.

(31) Eine Wiederinfektion bleibt unwahrscheinlich
NDR Info - Das Coronavirus-Update mit Christian Drosten - 14.04.2020 13:40 Uhr Autor/in: Korinna Hennig
Erneute Virusnachweise bei genesenen Patienten sind wohl eher Zufallsfunde von Erregerresten.

For our English speakers only:

A reinfection stays unlikely.
Now more generally translated:

Virus found in recovered patients is likely only ‘rest’ virus found by chance.

I didn’t say the whole study was great, but the immunity part seems pretty solid.
You know reading medical studies is something I do for living.
I read the whole thing and found it interesting but for the most part more accidental and in no way describing the situation in Germany.
But the is no medical reason that the immunity is different there than anywhere else.

The virus works in our body the same way no matter where you live.

Lanfear 04-14-2020 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lanfear (Post 882728)
Nee also mit Streeck würde ich ja eher nicht argumentieren wollen.
Der hat bis in den März rein argumentiert es müssten keine Kontaksperren geben, das Corona wäre weniger schlimm als die Grippe, die Ergebnisse die er letzte Woche vorgestellt hat sind sehr vorläufig und diverse Wissenschaftler haben Zweifel an der Methodik.
Und dann ist da ja noch die komische PR Agentur StoryMachine die das alles nicht so richtig wie neutrale Wissenschaft sondern eher politische Lobbyarbeit aussehen lässt.

TLDR for non German speakers:
I think Streeck is is the German version of a Scientist that Fox News would put up on their program - aka not a source I trust

So yes herd immunity is a thing, it all depends on how many people we are willing to accept dying in exchange for getting the economy up and running again.
But we need more research first and not open up lockdown based on shaky possibly biased science.

Apia resurrected 04-14-2020 09:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lanfear (Post 882732)
TLDR for non German speakers:
I think Streeck is is the German version of a Scientist that Fox News would put up on their program - aka not a source I trust

So yes herd immunity is a thing, it all depends on how many people we are willing to accept dying in exchange for getting the economy up and running again.
But we need more research first and not open up lockdown based on shaky possibly biased science.

That’s not something I want.

Unfortunately people will die anyway, only slower until we have a drug that has proven results and a vaccine.
And yes, less people will die if we keep the hospitals running and don’t overwhelm them with too many patients at once.
Opening the country completely now would be deadly for many people who could be saved otherwise.

I’m glad I don’t have to decide what to do.

I have a friend who talked about people dying from Corona as a gift for them because they want to die anyway.
I had to distance myself from her, because she kept sending me messages how we should sue the German country for the lock down.
I always wonder what people like her would say if it was her mother or her husband for example who died.

I had to say to her, please stop sending me these things, I don’t approve.

Lanfear 04-14-2020 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Apia resurrected (Post 882731)
In the Episode today.
Of course it’s vague. We are at the beginning of everything. But he said there is immunity.

(31) Eine Wiederinfektion bleibt unwahrscheinlich
NDR Info - Das Coronavirus-Update mit Christian Drosten - 14.04.2020 13:40 Uhr Autor/in: Korinna Hennig
Erneute Virusnachweise bei genesenen Patienten sind wohl eher Zufallsfunde von Erregerresten.

For our English speakers only:

A reinfection stays unlikely.
Now more generally translated:

Virus found in recovered patients is likely only ‘rest’ virus found by chance.

I didn’t say the whole study was great, but the immunity part seems pretty solid.
You know reading medical studies is something I do for living.
I read the whole thing and found it interesting but for the most part more accidental and in no way describing the situation in Germany.
But the is no medical reason that the immunity is different there than anywhere else.

The virus works in our body the same way no matter where you live.

I'm sorry are you saying 'oh I read the thing, I'm not sure its all great or applicable but I decided that the one thing I do agree with is definitely correct'
???
But in your first post you don't say any of that but rather present the study as a perfect backup for your argument.

Apia resurrected 04-14-2020 11:40 AM

Ok, I only Support this one point of the study with immunity.

Other findings are not applicable for a whole country. Sorry for being unclear.


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